The IGMDP is India’s greatest success story. Agni missiles form the backbone of India’s ground based long range strategic deterrent today. All the Agni series of missiles sing a song of credibility. The ranges of the missiles have been cleverly calibrated to enable them to reach potential targets. The missiles can be moved by road and rail enhancing their survivability. Longer range missiles can be safely tucked away in Central and Southern India. Canisterisation ensures minimum time lag between decision and launch.
Introduction
On 11 March 2024, India, for the first time, successfully tested an Agni-5 missile equipped with MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle) technology, from Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Island off the Odisha coast, joining a small group of countries with this capability. The launch of the MIRV-capable Agni-5 thus marked an important milestone in India’s nuclear development programme.
While work began in 2008 to develop the Agni-5, it was only in April 2012 that the missile was first test launched. After seven test launches in December 2018 Agni-V commenced user trials. As part of user trials, Agni-V was successfully launched on 27 October 2021. Later, on 15 December 2022, the first night trial of Agni-V was successfully carried out by Strategic Forces Command. The next challenge was to test the MIRV.
MIRV technology is the capability that allows multiple warheads to be loaded on a single missile and programmed to hit different targets, thereby greatly enhancing the missile’s destructive potential. With a range of over 5000 Km, the missile can be fired in any direction.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) for the successful test and said, “Proud of our DRDO scientists for Mission Divyastra, the first flight test of indigenously developed Agni-5 missile with MIRV technology.”
Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP)
The Agni project(s) began under the IGMDP as a technology demonstrator for re-entry vehicle technology. Initially the missile used a solid fuel booster from the Indian Space Research Organisation’s SLV-3 program. This was the precursor to the Agni 1.
Agni-1 soon became a successful single stage missile. Its diameter was 1m and its length was around 15m. Using fins for control it had a range of 700 km. Next came the Agni-2, a two-stage missile. The second stage used flex nozzles and thrust vectoring for control rather than fins like the first stage. The missile was 20m long with a diameter of 1m. The missile reached a range of 2,500 km.
Agni-3 had two stages with a diameter of 2m. Its length was 16m. The missile used a light vented interstage so the second stage just fired for separation negating the use of separation motors. Agni-3 did not use any fins, instead relied on flex nozzles for control. Agni-3 covered a range of over 3,000 km.
The Agni-4, had a closed interstage and relied on flex nozzle thrust vectoring for control. The reported range was 4,000km.
Agni-Prime (Agni-P) is another variation to the Agni series. It is a two-stage missile that uses technology developed for India’s longer ranged missiles like the Agni-4 and 5. It has a diameter of around 1.15m and a length of around 10.6m. The missile is canisterised, giving it better response capability. Agni-P boasts of enhanced accuracy being the first Indian missile with a Manoeuvrable Re-entry Vehicle, that also makes it harder to intercept by Anti-ballistic missile systems. It has a range of approximately 2,000 km.
Agni-5 is India’s longest range ballistic missile. It has three stages. The first two stages are inherited from the Agni-3 and the third stage has a lower diameter in the front and broader diameter at the rear to make it more aerodynamic. The second and third stages are made from composites to reduce weight. The missile has a diameter of 2m, length of around 17m and range upwards of 5000 km. The 50 Ton missile is canisterised. It can carry 10-12 warheads weighing total of up to around 1,500 Kg as part of MIRV.
MIRV
MIRV technology, possessed by countries like the US, UK, Russia, France, and China, enables a single missile to carry several warheads, enhancing the missile’s effectiveness. Agni-5, named Divyastra, has a reported range of more than 5,000 km. China considers the Agni-5 to be an ICBM. The warheads carried on the missile can be aimed at multiple targets several hundred km apart. The missile can carry decoy warheads too, that can help defeat the enemy’s ballistic missile defence (BMD).
The Divyastra system is equipped with indigenous avionics systems and high-accuracy sensor packages, ensuring that the re-entry vehicles accurately reach their targets. The system uses a modified nose cone on a three-stage motor to accommodate multiple warheads, including micro-nukes, mini-nukes, and thermo-nuclear weapons.
The development of MIRV technology was not easy. It required the combination of large missiles, small warheads, accurate guidance, and a complex mechanism for releasing warheads sequentially during flight.
Development of MIRV’s
As per ‘The Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation,’ MIRVs were originally developed in the early 1960s to allow a single missile to carry multiple nuclear warheads, each capable of striking different targets independently, unlike traditional missiles. The inception of MIRV technology was done by the US with deploying a MIRVed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in 1970 and a MIRVed Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) in 1971. The Soviet Union quickly followed suit and by the end of 1970 had developed their own MIRV-enabled ICBM and SLBM technology. The US, UK, France, Russia, China, and India are among the nations that possess the MIRV technology. As per their report a Russian MIRVed missile under development may be able to carry up to 16 warheads, each in a separate re-entry vehicle. Warheads on MIRVed missiles can be released from the missile at different speeds and in different directions. Some MIRVed missiles can hit targets as far as 1,500 km apart.
Pakistan is also on the path to developing MIRV capabilities. In January 2017, it reportedly tested a MIRVed missile, the Ababeel which has a reported range of 2,200 kilometres. At that time, an official press release had stated: “The test flight was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system.” On 18 October 2023, Pakistan again tested the Ababeel missile at the Sakhi Sarwar Range, with the Pakistani military’s media wing stating that the test was “aimed at re-validating various design, technical parameters and performance evaluation of different sub-systems” of the missile. As per the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Ababeel is one of two nuclear-capable medium-range ballistic missiles that Pakistan is developing; Shaheen-III is the other. The main difference between the two is Ababeel’s MIRV capability. Nothing visible from the test indicated the success or failure of the missile’s multiple-warhead capability, which was a key priority for Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division.
Writing in the ORF, Harish Pant stated that; “building MIRV-capable ballistic missiles is not easy. This is because they require some very demanding technical criteria, such as nuclear warhead miniaturisation, ensuring that the receptacle that carries the warhead or re-entry vehicle is of low weight or mass before its release from the Post Boost Vehicle (PBV), and also having the re-entry vehicles configured precisely to fit into the missile as well their separation from the PBV, which has to be manoeuvrable. Guidance and accuracy are a necessity as re-entry vehicles have to be spin stabilised during atmospheric re-entry.”
He further stated that “with the recent Agni-5 test, India has met these demanding technical requirements. In India’s case, this MIRV development is more significant and impressive because it has come against considerable odds stacked against the country’s missile and nuclear engineers.”
The successful test of Agni-V is a testament of India’s expertise in missile technology, showcasing its ability to develop and deploy sophisticated systems with high precision and accuracy.
Countering Ballistic Missile Defence
While Agni-5’s ability to strike multiple targets simultaneously is a game changer, but what is also an important outcome is that MIRVs makes defending the intended targets more difficult for an adversary. While MIRVs may not have been initially designed to defeat BMD, but de-facto they are doing so. Debalina Ghoshal, author of ‘Role of Ballistic and Cruise Missiles in International Security,’ contends that the MIRVed missile can help penetrate the enemy’s existing missile defense system, thus strengthening India’s deterrence.
Though presently none of the operational BMD can effectively counter ICBMs, the US has deployed its Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) System, but its effectiveness against anything more than one or two ICBMs at a time is questionable. China is developing the Hongqi (HQ-19) ground-based ballistic missile interceptors, which have been tested, but their capacity to intercept Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles such as the Agni-5 remains doubtful.
MIRV technology makes an Agni-5 missile more difficult to intercept because its warheads might approach their intended targets along with multiple decoys. This can lead to a decision dilemma for the adversary’s BMD sensors. For example, the initial release of MIRVs could all be decoys, which would invite the enemy counter measures, while the armed warheads could be released subsequently, making them that much more effective. Or even vice versa, to deceive the enemy. Such could be the permutation combination, involving multiple missiles, wherein the first missile carries only decoys while the second a combination and a third with a completely armed payload.
Multiple missiles armed with MIRVs could even make a comprehensive BMD system cost-prohibitive for the adversary. Given that China has BMD capabilities, MIRVs boosts the Agni-5’s chances of hitting its targets successfully. Thus, Agni-5 as an effective BMD countermeasure, that enhances the Indian credibility as well as deterrence.
The Warhead
MIRVing becomes even more complex if they have both nuclear and conventional options. China’s DF-26 and North Korea’s Hwasong-10 are thought to have both nuclear and conventional warheads, though this has not been officially confirmed by the respective countries.
The question that needs to be asked is, whether putting conventional warheads on an expensive missile is worthwhile? The Agni-5 has a potential range advantage because it can target beyond the reach of India’s current combat aircraft, including the Su-30MKI.
However conventional warheads on ballistic missiles do not pack much of explosive power, especially if they carry multiple warheads. This means that unless they have pinpoint accuracy, they will not be effective. Even with high accuracy, they are unlikely to be effective against hardened targets.
Further using such weapons creates difficulties for the defenders determining whether the incoming missile is armed with a nuclear or conventional warhead. If the same missile can be armed with both types of warheads, the defender might assume it is a nuclear attack, while in actuality, it may just be a warning shot to the adversary of what is yet to come. The adversary may respond with a nuclear strike without waiting to verify the warhead type. Hence there is a risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation.
Potential Benefits
MIRV’s potentially lead to faster expansion of a country’s nuclear arsenal. Theoretically, additional Agni-5 missiles with multiple warheads apiece would increase India’s current nuclear warhead capability.
Dr V K Saraswat, former Director General of DRDO who was deeply involved with A-5 development called it a “force multiplier” and said it would increase the weapon’s radius of influence. The Agni-5 MIRV, the landmark ballistic weapons system, takes India’s strike/counter strike capability to the next level, giving it higher potency, better influence, and denser zone. It strengthens our promise of “massive retaliation.”
China’s current nuclear growth can lead to a huge imbalance as their pursuit of nuclear weapons to match the US could become a serious issue. This is particularly true for India when confronted with a “two-front” nuclear threat.
Further, having more warheads on fewer missiles is more efficient and cost effective. On the obverse of course, fewer missiles with more warheads also means fewer potential targets for an adversary to destroy and putting more warheads on individual missiles increases their vulnerability.
While the Agni-5 is a land-based system, development of Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) with MIRVs will add a great deal of complexities to the existing equations. Submarines can carry only a limited number of missiles. Further, nuclear-powered submarines that carry ballistic missiles are expensive and difficult to field in considerable numbers. Though, they have a higher chance of surviving an initial nuclear attack. Thus, developing this cutting-edge capability seems to be the next logical step.
As China continues to assert itself through advancements in missile technology, India’s ability to develop and deploy advanced missile systems can be seen as a strategic response.
Conclusion
The recent test of India’s Agni-5 missile and the presence of Chinese research vessels near the Indian coast to observe the test highlight the ongoing strategic dynamics in the region. As per Lieutenant General Kamal Davar (Retd) “India is well on its way to acquire strategic nuclear deterrence, a mission which it has been pursuing since the past 40 years or so under its IGMDP.”
While the weapon system was reportedly tested at a lesser range, in future, Agni-5 will be able to match the threat from the Chinese Dong Feng missile, which is reported to have a range more than 8,000 km. As Pakistan is also developing its Ababeel missile India needs to constantly take the necessary steps to upgrade its platforms and warhead technologies.
The induction of missiles of various capabilities for its defence needs is an imperative for India, as it is flanked by two hostile nuclear neighbours in a deteriorating strategic environment. The force multiplier being, that they are ‘Made in India’ highlighting India’s growing self-reliance in defence technology.
In a nuclear war, much will happen in the realm of the unknown, because actual nuclear warfighting has never taken place. If and when that happens, you can expect nothing like what you ever imagined. To make this unknown, as known as possible, India needs to continue to work on its credibility, survivability, and resolve.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Maj Gen VK Singh, VSM was commissioned into The Scinde Horse in Dec 1983. The officer has commanded an Independent Recce Sqn in the desert sector, and has the distinction of being the first Armoured Corps Officer to command an Assam Rifles Battalion in Counter Insurgency Operations in Manipur and Nagaland, as well as the first General Cadre Officer to command a Strategic Forces Brigade. He then commanded 12 Infantry Division (RAPID) in Western Sector. The General is a fourth generation army officer.
